I love television
ratings. I love what they tell us about
individual shows, the networks, and the industry in general. My intention with this weekly article is to
take a look at the week in ratings and prognosticate about their future and the
health of each network. Trying to
predict renewals or cancelations based on one week’s worth of data is usually a
fool’s errand, so in this first week we’ll take more of a macro view of
things. Ratings presented here are the
Adults 18-49 rating, which represents the percentage of adults between 18 and
49 watching a particular program. We’ll
go network by network starting with:
 |
| "Sleepy Hollow" has been the one real bright spot for Fox thus far |
FOX –
So last week, I wrote an essay predicting dire things
for Fox if they can’t keep The X-Factor
and American Idol from dropping.
Well, one week into the new season and Fox is in trouble. The network is down almost 17% in same-day
ratings from last season, and there’s no one show to blame. Only Sleepy
Hollow is up over last year, drawing a 3.1 A18-49 rating for its second
episode, more than doubling The Mob
Doctor’s rating from a year ago.
While Sleepy Hollow
is a genuine hit, it alone is incapable of stemming the bleeding from the rest
of the Fox schedule. Fellow Monday show,
Bones, which is slated to shuffle off
to Friday nights in a few weeks, is down 17% from a year ago. The entire Tuesday night lineup, a particular
cause for concern in 2012-13, is down more than 30%, though it should be noted
that Fox debuted every show but Glee
a week early this year. Finally, the network’s
fall anchor, The X-Factor, is in free
fall, dropping almost 40% from premiere week last year.
There are a few caveats to be made here. As I said, we’re comparing Fox’s second week
this year against its premiere week in 2012.
This may not seem like a big deal, but season (or series) premieres
almost always rate higher than the following weeks’ episodes. For example, Fox’s ratings fell 11% from Week
One to Week Two last fall. If we compare
this week’s ratings against the network’s second week ratings from 2012, Fox is
down only 6% overall, still not great, particularly for The X-Factor, but at least salvageable.
I expect these variances to balance out over the course of
the season, and Fox does still have the Super Bowl and NFC Championship Game,
which will provide it with a huge ratings boost, but the network that lead the
charts for almost a decade until last season is now in danger of falling to
third place.
Fox program averages (2.19 network average):
Sleepy Hollow – 3.30
New Girl – 2.50
The X-Factor – 2.23
Brooklyn Nine-Nine
– 2.20
Bones – 2.1
Glee- 2.0
Dads – 1.85
The Mindy Project
– 1.70
 |
| Can "The Voice" carry NBC to a ratings title? |
NBC –
It looks like Robert Greenblatt can start preparing another mic-dropping speech for January Press Tour. After a fall that saw NBC’s ratings up 25%
from 2011 to 2012, the peacock network is up another 25% in the first week of
2013. Now, the same caveat I applied to
Fox’s ratings I apply here in reverse.
NBC debuted many of its shows early last year, trying to capitalize on
the Olympics. As such, while The Voice and Revolution, NBC’s two biggest shows of the fall, were in their
second weeks at this point last season, The
Voice premiered this week with four hours and The Blacklist debuted as well.
Even after tempering the enthusiasm a bit, it’s still
nothing but good news for NBC. The Voice is up over its dominating fall
premiere ago, settling in behind only Sunday
Night Football and The Big Bang
Theory as the highest-rated shows on television. Chicago
Fire got a huge bump from airing after The
Voice and could turn into a legitimate hit if it’s good enough to earn
those ratings. Even ancient stalwart SVU was up almost 30% for its two-hour
season premiere. And the two dramas that
had soft launches, Revolution and Parenthood, still performed
significantly better than the shows occupying their timeslots last year.
The one problem that remains on NBC’s schedule is the
Thursday night comedy lineup. Parks and Recreation debuted to a
disastrous 1.3 rating, while The Michael
J Fox show drew a 2.2 for its one-hour premiere. Now, that rating isn’t terrible, it’s
actually right on par with what The
Office was doing last year. But NBC
didn’t give an upfront full-season order to the show for it to pull a 2.2. They wanted this to be an anchor and right
now, it just isn’t.
So NBC is still in search of that elusive hit comedy, but
it’s still hard to see this opening week as anything but a rousing success for
the network.
NBC program averages (3.20 network average):
The Voice – 4.90
The Blacklist –
3.80
Chicago Fire –
2.70
Law & Order: SVU
– 2.70
The Michael J Fox Show
– 2.20
Revolution – 1.80
Parenthood – 1.60
Parks and Recreation –
1.30
 |
| Is "Marvel's Agents of SHIELD" ABC's last, best hope? |
ABC –
Premiere week was something of a mixed bag for ABC this
year. The network was up about 5.5% over
last year, but that increase was due entirely to the phenomenal debut of Marvel’s Agents of SHIELD, without which
ABC actually would have been down from a season ago.
That’s not to say it was all bad news. Monday night was steady as Dancing with the Stars and Castle basically held their ratings from
last year. Modern Family, while down from last fall, was up from its spring airings and is still the #2 comedy on television. Likewise, Grey’s
Anatomy, even in its tenth season, is among the top five dramas. And SHIELD
managed to at least partially revive Tuesday night’s, posting a great 4.7
rating and giving at least a solid sampling audience to its leadouts, The Goldbergs and Trophy Wife. Of course, the
one true, complete failure of premiere week was Lucky 7, which failed to generate any kind of audience at 9:00 on
Tuesday night.
The best news for ABC is SHIELD’s
success. I don’t know that it’s drawing
quite the audience they were hoping for, but it’s an instant hit show,
something the network hasn’t really had since Modern Family launched several years ago. If Scandal
can keep on building its audience on Thursdays, ABC could end up with a
legitimately strong presence on three nights (along with Modern Family on Wednesdays), which is how they rebuilt themselves
in the early 2000s, on the backs of Lost,
Desperate Housewives, and Grey’s
Anatomy.
We still have a great deal to learn about ABC’s season, as
their most volatile night, Sundays, has yet to debut and we haven’t yet seen
the debuts of Super Fun Night or Once Upon a Time in Wonderland. I still think ABC finishes the season in last
place, but there are at least some signs of life.
ABC program averages (2.67 network average):
Marvel’s Agents of
SHIELD – 4.70
Modern Family –
4.20
Grey’s Anatomy –
3.40
The Goldbergs –
3.10
The Middle – 2.50
Dancing With the Stars
– 2.30
Trophy Wife – 2.30
Castle – 2.20
Back in the Game –
2.20
Nashville – 2.00
Lucky 7 – 1.30
 |
| "The Big Bang Theory" is the biggest hit on television. |
CBS –
After several years holding the title as “America’s Most
Watched Network,” CBS finally broke Fox’s nearly decade-long grip on the Adults
18-49 ratings lead. While not everything is
perfect for the eye network, after one week, they seem to be well on their way
to winning another demo title.
What has made CBS so strong is that there are just no real weaknesses
on the schedule. NBC actually has more
highly-rated hours (for our purposes, a 3+ rating) but it also has multiple
hours on its schedule rated below 2. CBS
not only has top-level strength (The Big
Bang Theory is the highest-rated show on network television), but it has
depth, with even its worst shows (Hostages
excepted), pulling in at least a 2.0 rating.
CBS shows also tend to repeat very well, at least compared to the other
networks, so the network is much better at suffering the winter doldrums than
the others.
On an individual show level, there was nothing really
surprising about premiere week. The Big Bang Theory premiered up from
last year (though down a little from its high mark in January), further proving
that it is everybody’s second-favorite show.
What is so impressive about The
Big Bang Theory and its place on television right now, is that it seems
like the one show people will default to when they’re not watching anything in
particular. You see this especially when
the show repeats, either on CBS or on TBS.
In the final numbers, the show attracted 20 million viewers for its
second half-hour, which is just an incredible feat in this day and age.
Hostages was the
closest thing to a failure for CBS in premiere week, though it’s ratings were
even with what Hawaii Five-0 drew in
the same time slot last year. If I were
a betting man, I’d bet that Hostages
gets to run its full season before being canceled and fraudulently submitted to
the Emmys as a miniseries.
CBS isn’t in first place after the first week, NBC is. And there a lot of questions still hanging in
the air for the rest of the year. How
will the Super Bowl rate? Will NBC get a
boost from the Olympics? When will The Voice come back? The answers to these questions will likely
determine which network will finish on top, but right now, with Fox falling
apart, my money is still on CBS.
CBS program averages (2.96 network average):
The Big Bang Theory
– 5.80
The Crazy Ones –
3.90
How I Met Your Mother –
3.70
NCIS – 3.60
NCIS: LA – 3.00
Two and a Half Men
– 2.90
Criminal Minds –
2.80
Two Broke Girls –
2.80
Survivor – 2.40
Mom – 2.50
Person of Interest
– 2.30
Elementary – 2.10
CSI – 2.00
Hostages – 1.80
So thoughts? Comments? Just want to tell me my blog sucks? Let me know in the comments or on Twitter @TyTalksTV.
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